NexNode | Security & Geopolitical Analytics
Ukraine Conflict — Analytical Dashboard
Armor warfare dynamics · Personnel loss forecasting · 2024–2026
Data: ACLED · VIINA
Author: Imdad Ullah
ARIMA Forecast 2026
350,110
Russian losses · Lower bound
Linear Trend 2026
499,671
Russian losses · Upper bound
Status Quo 2026
367,255
Russian losses · Baseline
Territorial Control
+0.9%
Jan 2024 – Sep 2025
Unmanned Armor Peak
7,450
Apr–Jun 2025 events
2026 Russian Personnel Loss Scenarios
Three forecasting models applied to projected Russian military casualties
Russian losses only
Correlation: Territorial Control vs. Armor Violence Types
Russian territorial gains tracked against manned and unmanned armor violence events · Jan 2024 – Sep 2025